Minecraft Speedruns: Are Dream’s World Record Runs Legitimate?

Minecraft speedrunning has exploded in popularity this year, with plenty of huge content creators taking it up as competition.

In particular, Twitch streamers xQc and Forsen have gone back and forth for months pushing their fastest times, and Youtube has had plenty of popular content creators join in the race.

One particular content creator, Dream, has amassed a huge following for his Minecraft gameplay and fast speedrunning content.

In fact, Dream posted several Minecraft World Records times - or so we thought. Since these World Record speedruns completed, however, they’ve come under massive scrutiny.

So are Dream’s World Record Minecraft speedruns legitimate?

The World Records

Dream has posted several World Record Minecraft speedruns in 2020 - and his most recent have drawn plenty of criticism from the community.

These World Record runs seem to hinge on an amazing string of good fortune - which isn’t entirely out of the ordinary within speedrunning. After all, once speedrunners get closer in skill level, with games like Minecraft having so many inconsistencies and run killing or run making RNG, the biggest differences are made by the game itself rather than the player.

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But for Dream’s latest runs, this string of luck has come to a point where his runs have been deemed illegitimate by authorities in MInecraft Speedrunning.

Minecraft Speedrunning Moderators Determine Dream’s Runs are Fake

Originally posted in a 29-page research document before being broken down in a recent Youtube video - the Minecraft Speedrunning Moderation group has officially determined Dream’s World Record runs as illegitimate.

(Source) 

This verdict has pushed Dream’s runs off of the Minecraft speedrunning leaderboards. 

The argument put forth by the moderators goes over a multitude of different rationales and arguments to reach this conclusion.

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The moderator team’s calculations come via binomial distribution and data from all across Minecraft speedrunning. They make some massive assessments of the luck Dream experiences in his World Record runs, and the odds of their legitimacy.

The Odds

In the 29-page research document posted by the Minecraft Java Speedrunning Moderation team, there are several calculations of the odds for Dream’s RNG during his World Record runs.

(Source)

For Dream’s odds when trading gold bars for Ender Pearls from Piglins, a key aspect to Minecraft speed runs, the odds of his success rate clock in at a 1 in 177,000,000,000 likelihood according to the team’s calculations.

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And that’s not all. When entering Dream’s success rate for the random drop rate of Blaze Rods, another massively important aspect to Minecraft speedruns, the calculation comes up with 1 in 113,000,000,000 odds.

(Source)

When combining all of the lucky variables, the team determines the run as a 1 in 7,500,000,000,000 event.

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With these incomprehensible odds, Dream’s runs have been determined as fake, or illegitimate, by the team.